At Startle we, like many people, we tuned into the 96th Academy Awards on 10th March.

The competition, awarding technical and artistic merit in the film industry, includes the highly prestigious Best Original Song award. And it's as hotly contested as ever.

Songs from some of the biggest movies of the year were nominated including I’m Just Ken (did you see that performance?) and What Was I Made For from Barbie, along with Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) from Killers of the Flower Moon. Other nominees included It Never Went Away from American Symphony and Flamin’ Hot from The Fire Inside. 

As background music providers, we know the power of the structure, composition, and characteristics of a song. Every day, our music team are analysing tunes to make sure they're the perfect fit for a brand and their goals.

So, what's the perfect formula to winning at the Oscars, and was our prediction correct?

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The analysis

We analysed the characteristics of the last 50 Oscar-winning songs to determine what it takes to be a winner.

We reviewed characteristics related to the movies these songs are featured in, including genre and worldwide box office earnings, as well as specific characteristics of each song, including tempo, key, energy and positiveness. 

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What did we find?

In recent years, the Academy has faced criticism for the gender disparity of both nominees and winners over the years, particularly in categories like Best Director. In fact, only eight women have ever been nominated for the coveted award.

However, we found that there is less of a divide in the Best Original Song category. Forty-six percent of the past 50 winners are sung by women, while 40 percent are men. Mixed groups and non-binary people make up the remaining 14 percent of winners. 

The research also reveals that massive blockbuster hits don’t increase the nominees' chances of winning. Songs from movies that have grossed a respectable $100 to $500 million have won the most Oscars (40 percent) for Best Original Song. 

Comparatively, songs from less lucrative movies (grossing between $20 and $100 million) have also fared well. Fifteen songs (30 percent) that fit into this category have won a Best Original Song award. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, movies with over $500 million earned at the box office, have accounted for fewer wins, largely due to the smaller pool of high-grossing titles. Movies making astonishing amounts of money is a relatively new phenomenon, with only 53 titles ever hitting $1 billion at the box office.

Genre has also proven to be a contributing factor for Best Song wins. 27 songs from drama films have clinched the Oscar over the past 50 years – making up the majority of winners. Songs from musicals and romance films have also fared well, winning 18 and 14 Oscars respectively for Best Original Song. Songs from film genres including biopics, documentaries and teen films, have won just one Oscar each in the past 50 years.

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Our prediction was correct!

We looked at these findings and conducted some musical analysis to reveal a couple of front-runners for the coveted prize, based on the characteristics of previous winning songs.

Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) by Osage Tribal Singers and What Was I Made For, performed by Billie Eilish, share the most characteristics with previous winners – they were our predictions for this year's awards. Prediction - confirmed!

What Was I Made For is performed in a C Major which meets two of the most common characteristics. Research on previous winners found that eighty percent of Oscar-winning songs in the past five decades have been a major key. Songs in C Major, D Major and A-flat Major make up the majority of this.  Songs with a tempo that isn’t too fast or slow have proven to be big winners in the past. In fact, 30 percent of winning songs have a tempo between 91bpm and 110bpm while 24 percent have a tempo between 111bpm and 130bpm. Songs that are either faster or slower make up the minority of winners. 
 
Interestingly, the data reveals that more sombre songs are the most likely to win an Oscar. Thirty-six percent of winners have had a positivity score of between 1 and 20 percent. Extremely positive songs, with a score between 81 and 100 percent, have won just six Oscars in the past 50 years. 

The danceability of the Oscar-winning songs also indicates that the Academy tends to favour more low-energy songs. Thirty-six percent of songs have a danceability score between 41 and 60 percent. Thirty-two percent of winners have a danceability score between 21 and 40 percent.

What Was I Made For matches two of these characteristics. The danceability level of the song is between 41-60 percent, with a positivity level of 1-20 percent.

James, Startle's Creative Director

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So there you have it, our predictions for this year's Oscars. Best of luck to all the nominees!